Ballot Intelligence

Ballot Measure Brief

Strategic analysis for any Michigan ballot question: millages, bond proposals, charter amendments, or statewide initiatives. I map the donor coalition, identify comparable prior results, and rollup the base/persuasion universes for the specific jurisdiction.

Strategic Analysis

Four key components

Coalition Map

Who is funding the Yes and No committees? Network resolution of organizational donors, major individuals, and cross-measure participation patterns.

Prior Comparables

Precinct-level analysis of 3-5 comparable prior ballot measures in the same or similar jurisdictions. Where did support drop? Where was turnout highest?

Universe Rollup

Voter-propensity aggregates for the specific jurisdiction. Counts of high-support base voters vs. low-turnout "swing" tracts affected by the measure's topic.

Fiscal Impact Overlay

Tract-level mapping of the measure's primary effect (tax burden, infrastructure proximity, or service change) against voter demographics and turnout history.

Methodology

How I build it

A Ballot Measure Brief combines my campaign finance and voter targeting pipelines, tuned for single-issue binary questions rather than candidate races.

Data sources

  • MiTN state and local committee filings for ballot question committees
  • Michigan Qualified Voter File (QVF) aggregate precinct results
  • Historical election results (2012–present) for comparable measures
  • County apportionment and millage rate data
  • Topic-specific layers (EGLE, HRSA, ACS) based on the measure's goal

Analytical methods

  • Regression analysis of prior measure performance vs. demographic clusters
  • Entity resolution for organizational donors to Yes/No committees
  • Tract-level fiscal impact modeling (for millages and bonds)
  • Turnout propensity scoring for the expected election cycle

Validation

Every dollar and every precinct result cited is traceable to a primary public record. Fiscal models include a documented "assumptions" page for auditor review.

Deliverable format

Typical deliverable is 10 to 15 pages, PDF format, with cover, executive summary, four analysis sections, and source appendix. Delivery package includes PDF, plain-text report, chart exports (SVG), and per-precinct comparables CSV.

Who it's for

Buyers

  • Yes/No committees mapping the field and fundraising landscape.
  • Unions and Trade Assns evaluating community impact and member messaging.
  • Journalists investigating the "money behind" a local bond or charter change.
  • Watchdog orgs auditing the fiscal claims of a proposed millage.
  • Community Land Trusts / Housing orgs analyzing millage precedents.
What's in the deliverable

Contents

  • Impact Summary: Fiscal and community effect of the measure, quantified and sourced.
  • Coalition Map: 2-sided donor network for all registered committees.
  • Precinct Performance: 3-5 historical comparables mapped to current boundaries.
  • Universe Rollup: Base, Persuasion, and GOTV voter counts for the jurisdiction.
  • Targeting Priority: Ranked precinct list for field deployment.
  • Source Appendix: Every source database and retrieval date.
Sample

Example output

All sample content is produced by our standard pipeline on a real Michigan public figure / organization / committee. Identifying details have been replaced with generic labels. All data-source chains, citation formats, and analytical structure are identical to production deliverables.

Download sample PDF
Pricing

Pricing

Single price tier covers all measure types. Price scales by the size of the jurisdiction (number of precincts).

Jurisdiction scale Examples Price
Single municipality (Township / Village) Library bonds, local millage renewal $800
City (Small / Mid) City charter amendment, city millage $1,200
County / Large City County-wide bond, Detroit charter $2,500
Statewide Question Initiative / Referendum $6,000
Turnaround

Delivery timeline

  • Standard: 7 business days from complete order.
  • Rush: 3 business days, +50% on base price.
  • Clock starts when the order form is complete and payment clears.
  • Delivered as a download link (PDF, CSV, SVG charts) to the email on the order.
Order

How to order

Email info@regionpulse.com with: jurisdiction, ballot question identifier/text, delivery email, and rush (yes/no). I'll send a Stripe invoice on receipt. Production starts when payment clears.

info@regionpulse.com