District Intelligence Brief
A full strategic picture of any Michigan legislative district. Turnout modeling, targeting universes, precinct-level election history, demographic and issue overlays, and competitive context, joined to the Michigan voter file at the precinct level.
How I build it
Every brief is generated from the Michigan Qualified Voter File joined to precinct boundaries, district history, and demographic layers. Modeling is transparent and the outputs are reproducible. No opinions, no black boxes.
Data sources
- Michigan Qualified Voter File with full vote history
- Precinct boundaries and MICRC district shapefiles
- Precinct-level election results (2018, 2020, 2022, 2024)
- Census ACS demographic tables at the tract and block-group level
- Bureau of Elections candidate filings
- MiTN and FEC campaign finance records
- Issue overlay layers (eviction rate, environmental burden, energy cost, food access)
Analytical methods
- Turnout propensity modeling trained on statewide voter history
- Partisan lean estimation (Michigan has no party registration)
- Universe assignment: GOTV, persuasion, base, and oppose
- Historical results remapped to current district boundaries
- Spatial joins for demographic and issue overlay analysis
Validation
Turnout model predictions are validated against past election results. Universe assignments are reproducible from the same voter history inputs. Every finding cites the underlying data record.
Deliverable format
Typical deliverable is 8 to 12 pages, PDF format, with cover page, precinct visualizations, and full source appendix. Delivery package includes the PDF, plain text copy, chart exports, and structured data files (CSV).
Contents
A District Intelligence Brief includes the following sections (8 to 12 pages):
- Cover page: district name, race type, election date, confidentiality mark
- Key facts: top findings as factual bullet points with specific numbers
- District profile: county breakdown with voter counts, shares, and partisan lean
- Demographic snapshot: community cluster analysis from Census ACS tract data (income, education, race, environmental justice, housing)
- Precinct landscape: scatter plot of all precincts (partisan lean vs turnout) with GOTV target zone highlighted. Top mobilization targets with gap analysis.
- Voter targeting: full universe breakdown (GOTV-HIGH, GOTV-MED, PERSUASION, BASE, OPPOSE, LOW-PRIORITY) with county distribution
- Candidate field: each candidate with fundraising totals, in-district donor share, strengths, and vulnerabilities
- Issue analysis: issues ranked by independent data sources (voter search interest, media coverage, candidate focus, ground conditions)
- Intelligence gaps: known unknowns with expected resolution dates
- Methodology: model specs, data sources, validation results
Data files included
Every delivery package includes structured data files alongside the PDF:
- Full precinct-level electoral data (partisan lean, turnout, GOTV count)
- Candidate comparison table
- County breakdown
- Precinct scatter chart as SVG and PNG
- Plain text report for copy-paste
Who this is not for
The District Intelligence Brief is a fixed-scope analytical product built on the Michigan Qualified Voter File and Michigan district boundaries. It is not the right product for:
- Districts outside Michigan. The brief is built on the Michigan QVF and Michigan precinct geography. No other state is supported.
- Field-tactical GOTV planning. The brief delivers universes, targeting, and modeling. Your field director designs the door and phone program on top of it.
- Real-time in-cycle updates. The brief is a snapshot at the retrieval date. Scheduled updates are available separately at 40% of the original price.
- Races where a full Qualified Voter File is not available. Some special elections and recently-drawn districts have incomplete files; I'll say so before you pay.
- Anything faster than a 2-business-day rush SLA.
Example output
All sample content is produced by our standard pipeline on a real Michigan public figure / organization / committee. Identifying details have been replaced with generic labels. All data-source chains, citation formats, and analytical structure are identical to production deliverables.
Precinct landscape: every precinct plotted by partisan lean (x) and turnout (y). Blue box highlights the GOTV target zone -- high D lean, low turnout.
Pricing
Available individually or as a Campaign Intelligence Package (all three products for one race). Price reflects the scope of voter data and the number of candidates.
| Office | Conflict Dossier | District Brief | Donor Network | Package |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| School board / township | $400 | $500 | $350 | $750 |
| City (mayor, council) | $600 | $750 | $500 | $1,500 |
| County / judicial | $1,200 | $1,500 | $1,000 | $3,000 |
| Michigan House | $2,000 | $2,500 | $1,500 | $5,000 |
| Michigan Senate | $3,000 | $4,000 | $2,500 | $8,000 |
| Statewide / federal | $5,000 | $7,500 | $4,000 | $15,000 |
Fixed scope, fixed price. No retainers, no hourly billing, no hidden fees.
Delivery timeline
- Standard: 5 business days from complete order.
- Rush: 2 business days, +50% on base price.
- Clock starts when the order form is complete and payment clears.
- Delivered as a download link (PDF, plain-text copy, SVG/PNG charts, CSV data) to the email on the order.
How to order
Email info@regionpulse.com with: office and district, election date, priority issues (optional), delivery email, and rush (yes/no). I'll send a Stripe invoice on receipt. Production starts when payment clears.
info@regionpulse.com